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Estimating return potential for altcoins and Bitcoin
I personally think very few people grasp how to gauge the long term return potential of Bitcoin vs altcoins. I often hear people say that Bitcoin is no longer cheap and that altcoins have more return...
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Bitcoin's dilution-adjusted price
This chart is the Bitcoin historically adjusted price taking into account lost coins and inflation effects of new coins mined into existence, if you were to treat bitcoin like a company. (Yes we are...
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The network effects of volatility and liquidity, Bitcoin vs other payment coins
Altcoin volatility proportional to bubble size 2016 has been a bull year for privacy coins. Earlier this year we saw mooning of Monero which saw subsequent pumps in other dark-coins including...
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Estimating the true Bitcoin trading volumes in China, a data-driven approach
Today Chinese exchanges report 98% of global volume. This shows huge dominance by Chinese markets. Unfortunately we know that most of this volume is fake. Why is it fake? Unlike the rest of the world,...
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Three cats and a moon - a data driven analysis of Bitcoin trader psychology...
Here at Woobull Labs we take data driven analysis very seriously. Today, I’m pleased to present the culmination of 4 years of data gathering and analysis on Bitcoin trader psychology. The sketch above...
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Estimated price impact from a Bitcoin ETF
This infographic of Bitcoin’s price is something I’ve been pondering today. It tells Bitcoin’s often dramatic price story in fundamental trend lines on top of which lives some serious doses of...
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Bitcoin users double every 12 months
Google Trends is my friend. It’s a great tool for reporting search trends over time, and I’ve seen many people publish Trend’s charts of the search term “Buy Bitcoin”, to track Bitcoin’s interest by...
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Using Google Trends to detect Bitcoin price bubbles, and best times to buy
I wrote previously that Google Trends on the search term “BTC USD” is a great way to track the growth of active Bitcoin users. The search “BTC USD” is a proxy for the engagement of active Bitcoin...
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Determining the ideal block size for Bitcoin, a story of three graphs
Bitcoin has been operating for 8 years, from the early days when we only saw a few transactions in each block through until today, where blocks are crammed packed and congestion is the norm. One...
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Bitcoin's scaling debate deadlock fueling an altcoin bubble [infographic]
I’ve put together this infographic to help explain the 8x bubble that altcoins has seen in the last two months. Two words: Scaling Debate. Bitcoin’s scaling deadlock has not resolved and transactions...
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Segwit already making a difference to Bitcoin scaling [infographic]
Here's a sequel infographic to my last one showing the Bitcoin Network under congestion. After one month of Segwit activation, 4% of transactions on the Bitcoin Network is using the new protocol. It's...
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Introducing NVT Ratio (Bitcoin's PE Ratio), use it to detect bubbles
Preface February of this year, I tweeted a chart that presented the idea of a PE ratio for Bitcoin, something I temporarily called MTV Ratio before my buddy Chris Burniske suggested the less confusing...
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The 10,000 year view of Cryptocurrency [infographic]
Bankers say it's a Bubble. Technologist say it's Disruption. Students of history say it's the Dawn of the Digital Age. This is my 10,000 year view of cryptocurrency in one infographic.
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The state of crypto-markets Q4, 2017
Preface: Last week I spoke in front of an audience of 1000 fund managers, bankers, and private equity folk in New York City at the inaugural Concensus Invest conference organised by CoinDesk. Here are...
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My thoughts on Bitcoin's network congestion
Here's a wee chart below to illustrate my thoughts on Bitcoin's transactional network the last two years. The Bitcoin network hasn’t been able to keep up with peak transactional demand since 2016,...
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NVT Signal, a new trading indicator to pick tops and bottoms
NVT Ratio is a new valuation indicator that I introduced last year based on network fundamentals, namely value flowing through the blockchain. I was delighted to find Dmitry Kalichki created a much...
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When it's time to rebalance your crypto-assets in your portfolio
I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive yet completely wrong move long term investors make. Maybe your portfolio starts off nice and...
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Overheard in a chatroom: Forecasting vs predicting
"Overheard in a chatroom" is an experimental format I'm trying. They are real conversations coming from my participation on Twitter and social channels like Telegram and Slack. I've cleaned them up to...
View ArticleWhy HODL?
Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still...
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