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The 10,000 year view of Cryptocurrency [infographic]
Bankers say it's a Bubble. Technologist say it's Disruption. Students of history say it's the Dawn of the Digital Age. This is my 10,000 year view of cryptocurrency in one infographic.
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The state of crypto-markets Q4, 2017
Preface: Last week I spoke in front of an audience of 1000 fund managers, bankers, and private equity folk in New York City at the inaugural Concensus Invest conference organised by CoinDesk. Here are...
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My thoughts on Bitcoin's network congestion
Here's a wee chart below to illustrate my thoughts on Bitcoin's transactional network the last two years. The Bitcoin network hasn’t been able to keep up with peak transactional demand since 2016,...
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NVT Signal, a new trading indicator to pick tops and bottoms
NVT Ratio is a new valuation indicator that I introduced last year based on network fundamentals, namely value flowing through the blockchain. I was delighted to find Dmitry Kalichki created a much...
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When it's time to rebalance your crypto-assets in your portfolio
I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive yet completely wrong move long term investors make. Maybe your portfolio starts off nice and...
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Overheard in a chatroom: Forecasting vs predicting
"Overheard in a chatroom" is an experimental format I'm trying. They are real conversations coming from my participation on Twitter and social channels like Telegram and Slack. I've cleaned them up to...
View ArticleWhy HODL?
Why HODL? It allows you to capture the gains of the market. Trading lets you beat it. In that zero-sum game, 10% of participants win, 90% lose. Are your skills in the top 10%? If not and you're still...
View ArticleUtility is a red herring, look for organic store of value
This article was first tweeted in short form on 9th Jan 2019.Store of value properties is what gives crypto networks value, utility is overrated for the purposes of investment appreciation. Utility is...
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Fees paid to Bitcoin miners by year
If the Bitcoin network was a payments startup this chart would track its annual sales. Total fees paid to miners by year: 2010: $3.8k 2011: $33k 2012: $66k 2013: $2.2m 2014: $2.5m 2015: $2.3m 2016:...
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On peak indecisiveness
Summing Bitfinex's margin BTCUSD long and short positioning charts gives us an indication of speculator decisiveness. You can pull this chart up on TradingView with "BTCUSDLONGS+BTCUSDSHORTS". To be...
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Why does on-chain volume show an overly bearish picture of the 2018-2019...
Let's delve into a mystery of this 2018-2019 bear market that David Puell and Murad Mahmudov and I have been exploring for months... Why does on-chain volume look so bearish while many of our other (to...
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Experiments on Cumulative Destruction
Two approaches to bring bitcoin-days-destroyed into the price domainOkay, so this article is now well overdue given the recent price action. BTC never rests! The last few months have been very...
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When did Bitcoin's investment era begin? A study using NVT.
For those familiar with NVT Ratio, the data from the early years comes off very skewed, sometimes written off as noisy rubbish data.To answer the mystery of early NVT moonage, come with me on a trip...
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Introducing the Difficulty Ribbon, signaling the best times to buy Bitcoin
Introducing the Bitcoin Difficulty Ribbon. When the ribbon compresses, or flips negative, these are the best times to buy Bitcoin. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages on mining difficulty so...
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The two types of Altcoins, an investor's view
This is a thread on altcoins, first published on Twitter.Altcoins are nuanced. We have:Protocol coinsUtility tokensSecurity tokensNon-fungible tokensBut to an investor, there's only 2 types....
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